Brier Weather Station

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 Latitude N 47° 46' 49"    Longitude W 122° 16' 48"    Elevation 341 ft

000
FXUS66 KSEW 290301
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 801 PM
PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure spinning offshore will maintain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorm activity through the remainder of
the day. The low will gradually sink southward towards northern
California on Friday, allowing for showers to gradually taper across
the area. Warmer and drier conditions are expected over the weekend
and into next week as upper level ridging builds into the region. A
return to cooler and wetter conditions looks to resume near midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Scattered showers
continue to rotate onshore across Western Washington as upper level
low spins offshore. With loss of daytime heating, isolated
thunderstorm threat has diminished for the remainder of the night.
Recent satellite imagery shows subtle signs that the center of the
low is beginning to retrograde offshore before it begins to shift
southward on Friday and eventually merge with another upper low
approaching north/central California. Shower activity will wind down
by Friday morning and we`ll likely start to see some clearing by
late afternoon. We`re still on track for 3 or 4 days of dry weather
with temperatures climbing to above normal Sunday through Tuesday.
No forecast updates anticipated this evening. Previous discussion
follows with updates to marine/aviation portions.   27

Latest radar shows the heaviest scattered shower activity and some
isolated thunderstorm activity moving along the coast this
afternoon. Expect shower activity to continue area-wide through the
remainder of the day today as a vertically stacked low pressure
system continues to spin offshore and eject shortwave perturbations
across the region. The main hazards with any thunderstorms that do
develop are small hail/graupel, gusty winds, brief heavy downpours,
and cloud-to- ground lightning. Expect overall rainfall amounts for
the interior (outside of any heavier shower and thunderstorm
activity) to remain rather light, with most places receiving a tenth
to a quarter of an inch of rain through Friday morning. Areas along
the coast and Olympics will be wetter - and look to receive a few
tenths to 1.25 inches of rain. With snow levels generally hovering
between 3000-3500 feet today, can expect another inch of snow for
the Cascade passes through this evening.

Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will wane
Friday as a stronger shortwave trough moves into the eastern
Pacific, prompts cyclogenesis of a new low, and pulls the current
one offshore further southward towards northern California. Expect
shower activity to mainly become confined to the coast and mountains
by Friday afternoon and evening. Friday will be the start of a warm
up across the region, with temperatures increasing a few degrees and
topping out in the mid to upper 50s.

An upper level ridge will then build into the Pacific Northwest over
the weekend while the aforementioned low continues to move southward
towards southern California and become cut off. This upper ridging
will bring warmer and drier conditions to the region, with highs
expected to increase a few degrees daily- and looking to top out in
the upper 50s to low 60s by Sunday.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Warm and dry weather will
continue into Monday as upper level ridging remains situated across
the Pacific Northwest and a cutoff low resides across southern
California. Temperatures on Monday look to climb into the mid 60s
for areas across the interior. The ridge then looks to dampen
somewhat heading into Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level troughing
redevelops over the northeastern Pacific and moves into British
Columbia. At the surface, a cold front looks likely to move across
the region around midweek, bringing the return of wetter and closer-
to-normal temperatures. 14

&&

.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft as an upper-low continues to spin
offshore. Mostly MVFR this evening aside from brief instances of
MVFR cigs/vis under heavier showers. Again, mostly VFR for tonight
but can`t rule out patchy MVFR (or IFR) conditions, especially for
locations such as KPWT and KHQM. S to SW winds 8-12 kt throughout
the interior with gusts up to 20-25 kt possible. SE winds around the
same magnitude are in the forecast up at KBLI. Widespread VFR
criteria looks to rebound on Friday.

KSEA...VFR will likely persist, with brief drops to MVFR-IFR
possible at times throughout the evening under heavier
precipitation. S/SW winds 6 to 12 kt, with gusts up to 20 kts
possible before diminishing into early Friday morning. More VFR
conditions are expected into Friday.

33/McMillian

&&

.MARINE...A surface low remains offshore with breezy winds felt
throughout area waters. Small craft advisories will remain in place
for the East Entrance of the strait, Admiralty Inlet, and the
Northern Inland Waters, and coastal waters. These headlines will
persist into Friday, before the surface low drifts away from the
area, which will let winds relax this weekend. With high pressure
building overhead around this time, relatively benign conditions are
expected into next week.

Seas look to drop below 10 feet Friday morning, and continue to
lower to around 3 to 6 ft this weekend.

33/McMillian

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is forecast over the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for Grays Harbor
Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Friday
     for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday for Admiralty Inlet-
     Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
     Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
     Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
     James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
     Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$

NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion

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