Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
229
FXUS66 KSEW 270859
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
159 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will diminish as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to
build into Western Washington later today into tonight. A warm
front will brush the area on Tuesday with a cold front bringing
another round of rain and mountain snow along with breezy
conditions Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure
will bring a brief return of drier conditions late Wednesday
and Thursday before a series of systems lead to unsettled, wet
conditions again Friday into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers continue to spread onshore over Western
Washington early this morning, but these will decrease through
the day as the upper trough responsible for the unsettled
conditions shifts eastward and a weak upper level ridge begins
to build into the region. Dry and cool conditions are expected
across the region tonight, but the respite from active weather
will be brief. A warm front lifting northward across the
offshore waters will brush the area with a little rain along the
coast Tuesday afternoon. The trailing cold front will shift
southeastward across the area Tuesday night for a soggy night
along with breezy to locally windy conditions. This won`t be
anything like what transpired over the weekend. The front will
quickly push eastward by early Wednesday morning with drier
conditions returning as another transient upper ridge begins to
rebuild into the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge axis will slide across the area Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Thursday is shaping up to be a pretty
pleasant day for Western Washington with dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures. Surface ridging over interior British
Columbia and east of the Cascades will contribute to some degree
of low level offshore flow which may help limit morning fog
coverage with the exception of the Southwest Interior and south
Puget Sound. The next in a series of systems will begin the
approach the area Thursday night with rain spreading over the
entirety of the area during the day on Friday (sorry trick-or-
treaters). There are some discrepancies in the ensembles with
respect to QPF, but there is potential for this system to have
some low end atmospheric river characteristics. We`ll have to
keep an eye on its evolution in the days to come. There is good
model agreement that another wet and somewhat windy system will
follow it early in the weekend as the dark and typically wettest
month of November makes its 2025 debut. And so it begins. 27
&&
.AVIATION...
Northwest flow aloft as an upper level trough exits western
Washington. A mixed bag of ceilings early this morning as
scattered showers move across the area. With residual low level
moisture present across most of the region and light winds, can
continue to see lowered ceilings (MVFR/IFR) persist this morning
at lower prone terminals. Conditions will start to rebound to
VFR this afternoon at all terminals as a ridge starts to nudge
into the area. Light southerly winds through the day.
KSEA...MVFR conditions early this morning as low level moisture
keeps ceilings low. VFR conditions will return around 18z-20z
and remain into the evening hours. Light S/SW winds will start
to turn NE tonight, with speeds remaining light.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Weak surface ridging over the waters will shift inland tonight
for briefly quieter conditions across the waters. A warm front
will lift northward offshore tonight. Easterly gradients will
increase with the passage of the warm front and a period of gale
force winds are expected over the coastal waters and along the
Strait of Juan de Fuca just ahead of, and with the passage of, a
cold front Tuesday night. Post-frontal onshore will ease rather
quickly on Wednesday. Seas over the coastal waters will sharply
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday...building to 15 to 19
feet by Wednesday morning and remaining in double digits in
early Thursday. High pressure will produce quieter conditions
for area waters on Thursday before a series of systems bring
increasing winds and seas and likely headlines again Friday and
beyond. 27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system will bring another round of rain Tuesday into
early Wednesday, but it will not be hydrologically significant.
The next potentially hydrologically significant system will
arrive sometime Friday into the weekend. There remain
significant differences in precip totals with that system, but
the potential exists for the Skokomish to reach near flood
stage. Some rivers in the central Cascades could reach action
stage. 27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern
King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 1 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion